Israel has a lot to lose from a Russia-Ukraine war
In his meeting with Vladimir Putin in Sochi last October, Naftali Bennett offered to hold a summit between the Russian president and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. According to a report by Barak Ravid in Walla, the proposal was made by the Israeli prime minister with Zelenskyy’s knowledge, but Putin turned it down. A few months earlier, Bennett’s predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu, made a similar offer to Putin that was shot down as well.
A Russia-Ukraine summit in Jerusalem actually makes sense on a number of levels. Israel is one of the few countries to have close diplomatic ties with both Kyiv and Moscow. It is a short flight from both capitals, as the influx of dozens of Russian and Ukrainian business jets to Ben Gurion Airport each weekend and during religious holidays readily attests.
Israel is both a convenient playground for the oligarch classes of both countries and, at times of tension, also a haven and a meeting place. During the previous outbreak between the two sides in 2014, the lobbies of the upscale hotels in Tel Aviv were heaving with the cream of the Russian and Ukrainian business elites, sheltering here until the storm passed.
Israel is also one of the few places in the world where, due to discreet agreements, those in fear of their lives from the long hand of Russia’s intelligence agencies are guaranteed they won’t be harmed. Bitter rivals such as Putin’s favored oligarch Roman Abramovich and Ukrainian nationalist billionaire Ihor Kolomoyskyy own palatial homes in Israel.
Putin and Zelenskyy would also both feel at home in Israel thanks to the hundreds of thousands of their fellow Russians and Ukrainians who have emigrated to Israel over the past three decades. Russia and Ukraine remain at the top of the list of countries from where Jews make aliyah.
And there’s another reason why Israel’s leaders would be eager to do anything they can to reduce tensions that could lead to a Russia-Ukraine war. Quite simply, Israel has a lot to lose if that happened.
While Israel’s main strategic ally for the past 50 years has been the United States – and that will remain the case for the foreseeable future – since Putin came to power and launched Russia’s aggressive post-Soviet foreign policy, Israel has found itself having to tread with increasing wariness around the Kremlin’s interests. Especially in recent years, under presidents Barack Obama, Donald Trump and now Joe Biden, the U.S. has been reducing its footprint in the Middle East, creating a vacuum for Russia to fill.
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Israel is in a rather unique position as far as its military alliances lie. It is a not a member of NATO, and that has never been a prospect. But in recent years it has had increasingly close military ties to most members of the Western alliance, including frequent joint exercises in Israel and those countries. While the “red” side in these exercises is never specifically Russia, or any other country, the combined armies use NATO doctrines and protocols, while the fictional enemy has Russian-made weapons systems.
On the other hand, for the past six and a half years – ever since the Russian deployment to Syria – Israel has been closely coordinating its air operations with Russia against Iranian targets there. While Israel doesn’t directly inform the Russians of its intended targets, both the deconfliction mechanism between the two militaries and the quiet arrangements between the Kremlin and Jerusalem have enabled Israel to continue operating over Syria without clashing with Russian forces.
The relationship with NATO is a strategic asset to Israel, but the coordination with Russia over Syria is a strategic necessity. In what may have been a reminder to Israel of the rules on the ground, Russian fighter aircraft carried out – and broadcast on Russian state television – a joint exercise in recent days with the Syrian Air Force, flying over the Syrian-controlled part of the Golan Heights.
Another strategic consideration is Israel’s hope of selling natural gas to European countries. Plans to establish an eastern Mediterranean pipeline from Israel to Greece, and then on to the rest of the Continent, are currently on hold. However, should war break out and a possible cessation of Russian gas deliveries to Western Europe at the depth of winter become a reality, there will be a demand for Israeli gas to alleviate shortages. Israel would of course be happy to sell it, but would also be anxious for this not to be seen as an anti-Russia move.
And then there’s Israel’s constant concern for the Jewish communities who will be in harm’s way if and when hostilities break out.
At present, there’s no sign of an increase in aliyah requests from Ukraine, but that could change very quickly. Putin has always been close to Jewish figures and has made a great show of cracking down on antisemitism. Zelenskyy himself is Jewish and the Ukrainian government has also been very eager to showcase its protection of Jewish communities. But the reality remains: both countries have deep traditions of Judeophobia that traditionally manifest at times of war and chaos.
Whether Israel will be in a position to help extricate Ukrainian Jews from the war zone, if needed, will to a large degree be dependent on its ability to maintain its relations with both sides.
Successive U.S. administrations have not failed to notice Israel’s balancing act when it comes to Russia and have tried to get it off the fence, with little success. Israel has refused to join U.S.-sponsored condemnations of Russian actions in the past. Israel has also, under Russian pressure, terminated security agreements and arms deals – first with Georgia back in 2008, on the eve of the Russian invasion there, and then with Ukraine in more recent years.
Naturally, Israel hopes to retain its status as America’s closest and most dependable ally in the Middle East. But when it comes to Putin, and any war or invasion he may be planning, it desperately wants to stay on the sidelines.